Jeff Lukas

Summary of qualifications

Extensive knowledge of the climate, hydrology, and ecosystems of the Rocky Mountain Region and their interplay with managed resources and infrastructure.

Highly experienced in the analysis, interpretation, and presentation of different types of weather and climate data: paleoclimate, historical records, real-time monitoring, weather forecasts, and future climate projections.

Widely recognized for both technical expertise on climate topics and skill at translating complex scientific content for diverse audiences.

Long record of effective collaboration with decision-makers to help them incorporate climate information into planning and operations.

Professional employment

2020– Principal, Lukas Climate Research and Consulting, Louisville, CO

2017–2020        Senior Associate Scientist, Western Water Assessment, CIRES, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO

2009–2017         Associate Scientist, Western Water Assessment, CIRES, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO

1999–2009         Professional Scientist, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO

1998–2002         Technical Writer, Atmospheric Technology Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO

M.S., Forestry, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, 1996

B.A., Geography, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, 1991

Education

Selected reports and research papers

Bolinger, R. A., J. J. Lukas, R. S. Schumacher, and P. E. Goble. 2024. Climate Change in Colorado. 3rd edition. A report for the Colorado Water Conservation Board. Colorado State University, Fort Collins, 109 pp. https://doi.org/10.25675/10217/237323.

McCormick, B., J. Lukas, and K. Mahoney. 2020. 21st-Century Dam Safety Rules for Extreme Precipitation in a Changing Climate. Journal of Dam Safety, 13 pp.

Lukas, J., and E. Payton, eds. 2020. Colorado River Basin Climate and Hydrology: State of the Science. Western Water Assessment, University of Colorado Boulder, 531 pp.

  • Lukas, J., and B. Harding. 2020. Current Understanding of Colorado River Basin Climate and Hydrology, in Colorado River Basin Climate and Hydrology: State of the Science, 42-81

  • Lukas, J., E. Payton, J. Deems, I. Rangwala, and B. Duncan. 2020. Observations - Hydrology, in Colorado River Basin Climate and Hydrology: State of the Science, 154-219.

  • Lukas, J., E. Gutmann, and F. Lehner. 2020. Climate Change-Informed Hydrology, in Colorado River Basin Climate and Hydrology: State of the Science, 384-449.

  • Lukas, J., K. Wolter, and J. Barsugli. 2020. Weather and Climate Forecasting, in Colorado River Basin Climate and Hydrology: State of the Science, 254-286.

  • Wood, A., L. Woelders, and J. Lukas, 2020. Hydrologic Models, in Colorado River Basin Climate and Hydrology: State of the Science, 221-252.

  • Wood, A., L. Woelders, and J. Lukas, 2020. Streamflow Forecasting, in Colorado River Basin Climate and Hydrology: State of the Science, 287-333.

  • Woodhouse, C., and J. Lukas. 2020. Paleohydrology, in Colorado River Basin Climate and Hydrology: State of the Science, 361-383.

Ehret, S., J. Lukas, S. Arens, K. Clifford, and L. Dilling. 2018. Final Workshop Report for Vulnerability, Consequences, and Adaptation Planning Scenarios (VCAPS) for the Town of Carbondale. Western Water Assessment, 47 pp.

Mahoney, K., J. Lukas, and M. Mueller. 2018. Considering climate change in the estimation of extreme precipitation for dam safety. Volume VI of the Colorado – New Mexico Regional Extreme Precipitation Study, Colorado Division of Water Resources and New Mexico Office of the State Engineer, 57 pp.

Lukas, J., 2018. A brief overview of drought monitoring indicators and resources for Colorado. Colorado Water, 35 ( 2 ), 4 pp.

Woodhouse, C. A., J. J. Lukas, K. Morino, D. M. Meko, and K. K. Hirschboeck. 2016. Using the past to plan for the future – The value of paleoclimate reconstructions for water resource planning. In Water Policy and Planning in a Variable and Changing Climate, K. Miller et al., eds. CRC Press.

Finnessey, T., M. Hayes, J. Lukas, and M. Svoboda. 2016. Using climate information for drought planning. Climate Research, 70, 251-263.

Lukas, J., I. Rangwala, J. Barsugli, K. Wolter, and N. Doesken. 2014. Climate Change in Colorado: A Synthesis to Support Water Resources Management and Adaptation. CIRES Western Water Assessment, report for the Colorado Water Conservation Board, 114 pp.

Lukas, J., K. Wolter, K. Mahoney, J. Barsugli, N. Doesken, W. Ryan, I. Rangwala, B. Livneh, E. Gordon, M. Hoerling and G. Kiladis. 2013. Severe flooding on the Colorado Front Range, September 2013: A preliminary assessment. CIRES Western Water Assessment, 4 pp.

Lukas, J., L. Wade, and B. Rajagopalan. 2012. Paleohydrology of the Lower Colorado River Basin and Implications for Water Supply Availability. Colorado Water Institute - Completion Report CR223, 37 pp.

Klein, R., E. S. Gordon, W. R. Travis, J. Lukas, B. Udall, K. Averyt, J. Vogel, and J. Smith. 2011. Colorado Climate Preparedness Project - Final Report. Western Water Assessment, report to the State of Colorado. 108 pp.

Gray, S.T., J. J. Lukas, and C. A. Woodhouse. 2011. Millennial-length records of streamflow from three major upper Colorado River tributaries. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 47 (4): 702–712.

Rice, J. L., Woodhouse, C. A., and J. J. Lukas. 2009. Science and decision-making: Water management and tree-ring data in the western United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association. 45 (5): 1248–1259.

Gangopadhyay, S., Harding, B. L., Rajagopalan, B., Lukas, J. J., and Fulp, T. J.  2009. A non-parametric approach for paleohydrologic reconstruction of annual streamflow ensembles.  Water Resources Research.

Meko, D.M., Woodhouse, C. A., Baisan, C. A., Knight, T., Lukas, J.J., Hughes, M.K., and Salzer, M.W. 2007. Medieval drought in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Geophysical Research Letters.  34: L10705

Woodhouse, C. A., and J.J. Lukas. 2006. Multi-century tree-ring reconstructions of Colorado streamflow for water resource planning. Climatic Change 78: 293–315.

Selected invited presentations

(out of over 100 since 2009)

Lukas, J. Hydroclimate research and the Colorado River: The case of climate model-based projections of future streamflows. NASA Jet Propulsion Lab, Applied Earth Science Forum Seminar (Webinar), February 27, 2023.

Lukas, J. Comparing CMIP6 with CMIP5 for application to Colorado water resources. Water Utility Climate Alliance (WUCA) CMIP6 Subcommittee (Webinar), March 20, 2023.

Lukas, J. Warming up and drying out: The latest science on climate change and the Colorado River. Annual Seminar, Colorado River District (Webinar), September 23, 2020.

Lukas, J. Water planning in a changing climate: How water agencies are looking “outside the box.” Fall Water Symposium, Northern Water, Loveland, CO, November 20, 2019.

Lukas, J. Climate change in Colorado: Water resources and forests. C-9 Summit, Colorado Water Conservation Board, Winter Park, CO, September 25, 2019.

Lukas, J. Warmer, drier, and earlier: Climate change and Colorado’s water. Colorado Water Congress – Climate Workshop, Westminster, CO, January 30, 2019.

Lukas, J. Climate change and extreme events. Water Education Colorado - Climate & Water Workshop, Lakewood, CO, March 29, 2018.