What I do
I provide decision-makers in the public and private sectors in the Rocky Mountain region and beyond with information, tools, and capacity to assess weather- and climate-related risk and better plan and prepare for the future. I create cost-efficient solutions using publicly available datasets and tools, and where possible, building on existing analyses and assessments.
My work spans three overlapping application areas: climate hazards, water resources, and ecosystems.
Climate hazards
Individuals, organizations, and communities have always faced threats from weather and climate, primarily from what scientists call extreme events and emergency managers and planners call hazards: Heavy precipitation and floods, debris flows, droughts, wildfires, heat waves, damaging high winds, heavy snowfall and blizzards, and cold waves. Human-caused climate change is already increasing the severity and frequency of most of these hazards, and greater changes will occur as the 21st century unfolds. At the same time, a growing population and expanding footprints of urban development means that in general, more people, property, and public infrastructure are exposed to these hazards. Both public- and private-sector entities need to know how the risks from these extreme events are changing.
Water resources
In the Rocky Mountain region, our dry atmosphere and snowmelt-dominated hydrology means that the surface water supply is exquisitely sensitive to both climate variability and climate change. We are already seeing changes in the timing and amount of streamflow that are attributable to human-caused warming. That warming will also tend to increase water demand for irrigated agriculture and urban outdoor watering. The quality of our water supply is also threatened by warming water temperatures, reduced streamflows, and impacts from increasing wildfires. Water suppliers and water users need to understand and plan for further changes in water supply, water demand, and water quality over the coming decades.
Ecosystems
The distribution and viability of plant and animal species and their habitats is profoundly shaped by climate at multiple spatial and temporal scales, from single local weather events to systemic regional climate changes over decades. Beyond setting general limits to species’ ranges, climate and weather are drivers of key ecosystem disturbances such as wildfire, floods, and insect and disease infestations. Ecosystem managers need to know how novel climate conditions in the future might impact the biota and key disturbance processes.
“I work with you to turn climate data and climate science into actionable information for your organization.”
Jeff Lukas
About me
For over 20 years, I’ve worked with decision makers to develop information that helps them prepare for the future weather and climate and its impacts on people, assets, and resources.
For the first half of that period, as a researcher at INSTAAR at CU-Boulder, I developed tree-ring reconstructions of climate and hydrology in collaboration with water managers, and helped them apply those data to their long-term planning. This body of work, along with that of other tree-ring researchers, is showcased on the TreeFlow website, which I co-developed.
In 2009, I joined the Western Water Assessment (WWA) at CIRES as full-time research staff. WWA is a regional research program funded by NOAA as part of the RISA network, which works to expand and build the nation's capacity to prepare for and adapt to climate variability and change. While with WWA, I led numerous projects and activities to develop and provide decision-support information across a wide range of timescales, climate vulnerabilities, and types of climate data. The partner-clients for these activities included water agencies, land and wildlife management agencies, and agencies responsible for infrastructure and public safety. To create successful outcomes, we also collaborated with other researchers, forecast and climate-service providers, and private consulting firms.
From this user-focused research experience and my graduate training in forestry, I have nurtured a very pragmatic perspective on the value of scientific research. From this perspective, valuable research is that which ultimately enables a better decision, whether or not it pushes forward some scientific frontier. Accordingly, I seek to both create new scientific products that facilitate better decision making about climate risk, and translate existing climate science to make it more useful.
Who I’ve worked with
Over the past 20 years, I’ve collaborated with forward-looking organizations across the western U.S.
These are some of the organizations with which I’ve conducted projects, either through their direct funding, or with the support of a funder such as NOAA or the National Science Foundation.
Colorado Water Conservation Board
Colorado Dam Safety Office
Colorado River District
City of Boulder
City of Westminster
City of Carbondale
Denver Water
Northern Water
Southern Nevada Water Authority
US Bureau of Reclamation - Upper and Lower Colorado Regions
USDA Forest Service - Rocky Mountain Research Station
Hydrosphere Resource Consultants
And these are some of the other organizations I’ve provided with technical guidance through climate analyses, reviews of proposals and draft reports, and/or outreach and training.
City and County of Denver
Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment
Colorado State Forest Service
Federal Emergency Management Agency
Southern Rockies Landscape Conservation Cooperative (Dept. of Interior)
US Bureau of Reclamation - Science and Technology Program
USDA Forest Service - Gunnison, Grand Mesa, and Uncompahgre National Forests
Water Utility Climate Alliance
Wyoming Fish and Game Commission
